This page provides the new long macro-financial dataset (in excel, csv & stata formats) used for the following paper.
Camous, Antoine, Monnet, Eric, and Damien Puy. (2026) World Cycles Revisited: Diverging Trends in Prices and Quantities , American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming.
[supersedes the previous version: One ring to rule them all? New evidence on world cycles. ]
Abstract: We revisit evidence on world cycles using a new quarterly macro-financial dataset coveringa broad set of countries from 1950 to the COVID-19 crisis. By filling historical data gaps, weshow that previous studies overstated the influence of global factors on national GDP and creditfluctuations. Our central finding is a novel disconnect: asset prices have become increasinglysynchronized under financial globalization, whereas output synchronization has remained lowand stable. We propose a parsimonious model in which deeper financial integration raisesrisk-sharing and asset-price co-movement while encouraging riskier, less correlated productionstructures, thereby reconciling the observed patterns..The dataset consists of five variables, available for a large cross section of countries since 1950, at quarterly frequency: (i) Real GDP (ii) Credit, (iii) Consumer Prices, (iv) Stock Prices, and (v) Sovereign Bond Yields .
It currently covers (i) 37 countries for real GDP (ii) 45 countries for credit (iii) 48 countries for consumer prices (iv) 26 countries for stock prices and (v) 18 countries for bond yields.
The data starts in 1950 (or early 1950s in few cases) and currently ends in 2025 Q4 for all variables.
We refer readers to the documentation for important details about the methodology, sources and definitions.
If you use the data, please cite the current version of the paper as the source of the data.
Comments and suggestions for improvement are welcome.
NARRATIVE ANALYSIS OF WORLD BUSINESS CYCLES: In a previous version of this paper dedicated only to output, we conducted a narrative analysis of the world output cycle based on the IMF annual reports published between 1950 and 2014 and find that the world cycles described in IMF reports match almost exactly the turning points and phases identified by our estimation procedure. This narrative analysis is freely available online here: Monnet, Eric, and Damien Puy. Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?. No. 2016/054. International Monetary Fund, 2016.